Forecasting the 2020-2030 Quantum AI-Digital Decade:
10 Macro Trends of the AI-DigiTransform "Mental" Webolution
November 19, 2019
Forecasting the 2020-2030
Quantum AI-Digital Decade:
10 Macro Trends of the
AI-DigiTransform "Mental" Webolution
Each year-end, I forecast trends for the coming year. This time, I am forecasting for the full decade to 2030 because of a major macro transformation that is underway.
We have shifted from the Machine age to the Mental age, to an AI Human Mind economy. This ongoing Webolution is driven by AI-Digital and Quantum tech of various kinds, not just upcoming Quantum Computing.
As everything becomes digital and intelligent, every facet of life gets reinvented. Ten examples are listed in the diagram (not in any particular order of magnitude – they are all Webolutionary) and explained briefly as follows:
1. Workplace Becomes Any Place/Time. In the digital age, you do not go to work, work comes to you, at least for the vast majority of office workers. Remote working and telecommuting will come to dominate the employee composition by 2030. It reduces overhead and boosts productivity.
2. Workstyle Becomes Freelance. Fewer and fewer employees will be full-time in the traditional sense by 2030. New generations of workers demand flexible working hours, remote work arrangements, and prefer to be freelance independent contractors. In turn, this will give greater flexibility to employers who contract for these workers who, as just noted, will produce far more, at far less cost. And it is all made possible by the AI-DigiTransform Webolution.
3. Technology Becomes a Quantum Network. The Webolution is accelerating and expanding rapidly as computing is becoming both faster and more intelligent. This is being driven by AI and 5G, and we are likely to see major breakthroughs in Quantum Computing before 2030. We also will see more convergence of bio-genetic science with digital technology. This will move us towards what I call a BioDigi TransHuman Species of humanoids, which will increasingly become more intelligent than humans.
4. Products Become Customized and 3D Printed. The era of Mass Production (and Mass Marketing) is dying. The AI Webolution brings an era of Digital Mass Customization, using AI and Machine Learning (ML) to custom-tailor every product to the precise needs of each consumer. This will increasingly occur at the end-user's place of business or residence. By 2030, 3D printers may be as commonplace as text printers. Millions of households will have a 3D device to make whatever they wish from customizable 3D printing and design software (similar to AutoCAD and Photoshop).
5. Transport Becomes Autonomous Electric. By 2030, every vehicle, from bicycles, scooters, motorbikes, automobiles, tractors, and trucks to drones (even trains, ships, and airplanes), will become both electric-powered and self-driving. The fossil era is over (see next item) and personal-use vehicles also will be mass customized (as above) and often 3D printed.
6. Communication Shifts to Personal e-Gadgets. 5G technology and AI will further enhance the power of smartphones and other mobile devices by 2030. They also will become orally operated (finally!), and things like keyboards and computer mice will become as obsolete as land-line phones. I also think that chat bots will simply become a cellphone app.
7. Content Reverts to Factual Journalism. Resistance has already mounted against fake, biased, and unreliable news and information. AI and Machine Learning will clean this up and "fact check" all content. Any publication of social media platform that fails in this will be heavily regulated and/or will lose its users rapidly. And users that abuse the system will be exposed and banned, regardless of who they are.
8. Energy Becomes Electric and Solar. As just noted, the fossil fuel era is ending. Environmental priorities will push solar to the fore by mid-decade. Already it is growing at a rapid rate, and getting cheaper by the day. There is even the possibility by 2030 that much solar power will be gathered from the Sun by orbiting technology and beamed down into power grids.
9. Economy and Money Become 100% Digital. Money evolved from seashells to coins, paper, and digits. Financial service organizations are not in the money business; they are in the business of information about money. Retail bank branches and ATMs will vanish; you carry your bank account as an app on your digital wallet. Credit and debit cards will be replaced by AI interfaces. Already about 90% of global financial transactions are digital. We will soon be a "cashless" economy. So there absolutely is no need for so-called crypto-currencies (all of which are fakes and scams). Nor do we need to call real money a crypto, unless it is issued, regulated, and backed by a central bank. (Also see important End Note re Economy.)
10. Organizations Become Organic Networks. Hierarchic structures simply are not agile enough and cannot innovate fast enough, to cope with and adapt to the digital Webolution. In a digital economy, by implication, you must be digitally competitive. Companies must AI-DigiTransform or die. Every business must reinvent itself to become a digital business, and must redefine its purpose. For example, just as banks are in the business of digital information about money, retailers are in the business of digital information about products, as Amazon and Alibaba demonstrate. Only companies which reinvent themselves by 2030 will exist and prosper. The rest will vanish.
· 2020 will see a Recession (as I forecast last year) but …
· AI, 5G, and other tech will lift us into the next economic boom.
· Every industry sector will be reinvented, not just those mentioned.
· Future posts will address each major economic sector.
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